When This is Over: Will It Become Seasonal?

Maybe. Many respiratory viruses are seasonal. We associate them with cold weather—the “flu season” is the best example. Flu usually starts in Asia, then appears in North America around Nov-Dec and runs through April or so.

There are other seasonal viruses. RSV (respiratory syncytial virus), other coronaviruses that cause about 50% of common colds, rhinoviruses that cause most of the others, etc).

These viruses have a tendency to come out in full force when they appear for the first time. For example, SARS, MERS.

Fauci agrees. In recent days, he has said our social distancing will likely be effective in slowing down, or even stopping, the spread of COVID 19 for now.

If it is seasonal, we will be better prepared for it—with a vaccine, and, hopefully, a menu of drugs that have been tested, are licensed—and work.

A chart of some common seasonal respiratory viruses. PIV = parainfluenza virus; MPV = metapneumovirus

Never again like this—we will be prepared.