Contagion Matters - COVID-19
A Coronavirus particle under the electron microscope
A patient at Rochester General Hospital is being evaluated for the novel Coronavirus infection, aka COVID-19.
We don’t have much information, but the patient has an illness, and likely a travel history, suggestive of COVID-19. The lab test to confirm the diagnosis has been sent to the NYS Lab in Albany. Results are expected by the end of the week.
In the meantime, according to RGH, the patient is in isolation in a private room.
Case Count: Here is a real time interactive chart from Johns Hopkins University.
Navigate around this site from the WHO. There’s also a lot of information here.
A few other thoughts
1. Our health care system does not have “surge” capacity. This means that, during a time of increased need, there aren’t enough hospital beds for all who need them.
2. In the US, testing for the new coronavirus has been limited. We only recently started expanded testing for coronavirus among people with compatible symptoms—some two months after the disease was first reported.
The US has lagged behind in testing for a variety of reasons -- misguided policy, regulatory limitations and a faulty test. While other countries have already conducted thousands or even tens of thousands of tests, as of last week the U.S. had done fewer than 500. While the logjam on testing should end soon, it's probably too late to prevent extensive community transmission.
3. How bad is it? Here is what we know.
About 80% of all COVID 19 infections are mild and the patient recovers
The mortality rate (the % of sick people who die) = 3/5%
The mortality rate for flu = 0.1% (one-tenth of one percent)
The people at greatest risk for severe or fatal coronavirus illness are our most vulnerable patients. Like other viral respiratory tract infections—older age and concurrent medical problems make coronavirus infection much more serious.
Estimates from China suggest the mortality rate among those older than 80 is 15%. That's why the reported identification of cases in a Washington nursing home is particularly worrisome.
4. Who’s in charge? I want to avoid the politics of this situation. Fortunately, there are some very credible, experienced physicians involved.
Dr. Anthony Fauci — longtime director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Fauci has been a major player in the HIV epidemic since the beginning.
Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.
Dr. Deborah Birx, Coronavirus Response Coordinator who also comes from the global AIDS movement.
Dr. Robert Redfield, Director, CDC. Another longtime AIDS warrior. He’s a bit unpredictable and leans right at times. Still, he has more science background the the Prez or VP.