Trendspotting: Graphs, Charts and Other Matters

As an infectious diseases doc, I like graphs and charts. They tell a story and can be helpful when trying to figure out where you are and where you are going.

Trendspotting is the identification of new trends. Take a look at the COVID-19 epidemic curve as of Saturday, March 7, 2020.

1. Graph

• The top line (orange dots) show the number of cases in mainland China. Notice how the line starts to flatten out at the end of Feb/early March.

• The middle line shows the number of people who have recovered.

• Bottom line (yellow dots) shows the number of cases in places other than China.

2. Questions/ Trendspotting exercise

• New cases in China might be leveling off? Maybe, but it’s too early to tell.

• The bottom line showing new infections outside China is rising suggesting that virus is becoming “endemic ”(i.e. settling in) and spreading in other areas.

• What’s also interesting is that significant numbers of people are recovering from their illness. About 50,000 people of the almost 106,000 people on the graph, are shown as recovered.

3. Disclaimer

• The graph is only as good as the number of people being tested and reported. Others have a more sophisticated way of looking at this. Take a look at this graph: The Johns Hopkins people think there is more to the story - and more cases in China than is being reported.

Interesting stuff. Stay tuned.