Social Distancing and Science

The graph illustrates the results of a “thought experiment” = a scientific estimate.

• It assumes constant 30% growth throughout the next month in an epidemic like the one in the U.S. right now

• It compares the results of stopping one infection today — by actions such as shifting to online classes, canceling of large events and imposing travel restrictions — versus taking the same action one week from today

There’s a big difference. If you act today, you will have “averted/ avoided” four times as many infections in the next month: roughly 2,400 averted infections, versus just 600 if you wait one week.

That’s the power of averting just one infection, and obviously we would like to avert more than one.

Conclusion: With the “exponential growth” of an epidemic, individual and community actions such as social distancing taken early on can have a much greater impact compared with taking the same actions even a week later.

See the complete New York Times piece here.